Intrade: Fantasy markets making real money
According to the WSJ’s fantasy political market, today’s top pick for president is Barrack Obama (trading at the highest price), followed John McCain and Hillary Clinton. The most active trading is for Mike Huckabee (largest volume of shares traded).
|
Candidate |
BQty 74 208 389 800 1679 299 103 390 3634 |
Bid 52.3 36 16.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 |
Ask 52.4 36.3 17 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 |
Vol 3.2m 3.4m 2.9m 2.8m 2.7m 4.1m 3.2m 3.3m 2.9m |
Chge 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 |
Fantasy betting has risen considerably in popularity in recent times, with web sites devoted to picking winners in every sport from football to fly fishing. The built in social network of most sites allows users to participate in fantasy betting with friends and family.
BetFair as the front runners in the prediction markets game.
BetFair is aimed at the European market and charges commissions on winnings (there is no charge for a net loss). Betfair was founded in 1999 and claims to process 15 million trades a day.
Intrade powers WSJs fantasy political market. Trading on the prediction market is simple. For example, if you think the likelihood of Hillary Clinton becoming president is more than 17% (see table above for Ask price) you buy contracts. If you think the probability is less, you sell a contract. The site charges 5c per trade. Members buy and sell contracts against each other. Intrade charges 5c per matched trade.
The big question is - other than being quite entertaining, are fantasy markets able to predict the outcome of events in a reliable fashion? Given that the betting is probability based, one can infer that with a suitable, unbiased population size, the predictions should be at least as good as those of the experts - similar to the financial markets where the success of the expert predictions of, say, the level of the S&P index in the future, has been no higher than those of the lay person. In a market where the collective thought process actually influence the outcome, it is very likely that the aggregate forecasting ability of the masses will actually provide a more accurate representation of reality.
Earlier we looked at crowdcasting and polling as ways of harvesting collective wisdom. Predictive markets are like 4 dimensional polls in that they have a time component folded in. Like true financial markets, they reflect the quicksilver nature of changing sentiments.
By the way, is the US in recession in 2008? According to Intrade, 65% think so!
Do you spend time on the Fantasy betting or Predictive markets sites? Take our poll on the sidebar.
I support the Microsoft-Yahoo merger because Google is my frenemy
I fully support the Microsoft and Yahoo merger; mainly because I consider Google to be my frenemy.
Frenemy is defined as:
Someone who is both friend and enemy, a relationship that is both mutually beneficial or dependent while being competitive, fraught with risk and mistrust.
And without a doubt, Google is my number one Frenemy. I love some of their products, but I worry that they have so much information about ever body and it is just a matter of time before their privacy policy crumbles.
As I said a while ago, Google is so much ahead of the competitors that Google is skewing the market and tilting the playing field for innovations. If you ever cross Google, Google is the prosecutor, the judge, the jury and the executioner. Google is stronger than God, and I don’t like any entity wielding so much power over me.
And as the old adage goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
I want to see a real alterative to Google for online ads, web search and online office applications.
Yahoo couldn’t compete with Google and I was concerned that they have essentially conceded to Google in the field of web search. Microsoft couldn’t compete with Google, because well, they are Microsoft and they have their own ways of doing things. But combined Microsoft and Yahoo, Microshoo, might provide real competition to Google in some important fields.
Microshoo might not be able to catch up with Google in search technology, but there is a real chance that Yahoo and Microsoft combined will provide a viable alternative to ad-sense and online advertisement market. Online office application could go either way, but I do expect Microsoft+yahoo to put up a robust defense before they concede that domain.
In some of the websites I maintain, 80% of the traffic comes from Google. I think that is just wrong - it means that I am not in control of my website, Google is. Anything that can be done to bring that ratio down, to reduce my reliance on Google, is a good thing.
NewYork Times is reporting that CEO of Google placed a call to Yahoo chief, offering the company’s help in fending off Microsoft’s offer. One of the ways that Google can help is by having Yahoo outsource the web search to Google. NO, NO, I don’t want to see that happen and believe me, you don’t want to have Google the only provider of web search - if that happens, you might as well wear shackles with Google logo on it.
I am convinced that the Microsoft and Yahoo merger is good for Microsoft, good for Yahoo and most importantly, it is good for the internet community; both in the short term and in the long run.
Go Microshoo, Go!
Guy Kawasaki’s 10-20-30 Rule for presentation
Guy Kawasaki’s 10-20-30 rule for presentation:
- 10 slides
- 20 minutes
- 30 point font
I don’t think I agree with rule as a blanket statement, but I do agree with the concept that one should have fewer slides and leave some room for questions and not use too small a font on the slide.
The number of slides and the font size is dependent on the audience. Angel investors like to see a lot of details - they are funding the “idea” and want to see it flushed out a bit more. So for that audience 10 slides in 30 point font won’t work.
Also, I have noticed that the power point presentation at a VC firm get circulated to a lot of people who weren’t there at the presentation. For their benefit, the slides need to have enough content to provide context.
I tend to use 30 points font for the basic ideas but also include small font text in a bulleted list form. So if any member of the audience has a specific question, I can point to the small text.
If you have already established yourself as an “authority” in the subject that you are going to talk about; you can get away with 10-20-30 rule but if you are pitching the idea to angel investor group, you need to show that you have thought about various elements in your presentation and that, unfortunately, requires use of small fonts on the slide.
This is especially true now when the power point presentation has taken the place of a business plan. It is not uncommon to hear from a VC “send me your power point and a one pager”. I am not suggesting that you try to cram the business plan in to the power point, but you need to be cognizant of the fact that VCs very often don’t read the business plan and may rely on the power point presentation. So use the fewest number of slides you can get away with and make sure that all the core concepts are in size 30 font.
Green cars - top picks
Green cars are getting - well greener with the latest crop of electric and hybrid cars hitting the market with prices all the way up to a half of a million dollars!
Our top picks of the electric/ hybrid cars
Most likely to impress: The Venturi Fetish wins this category. The fact that you were willing to drop $435k just to save the environment has to impress a few folks. So what if it sports less of a range and top speed than cars a tenth of its price? If you are worried about such mundane things, you might be looking at the wrong end of the spectrum!
Most likely to get rid of your date in a hurry: If you have an extra $108k, why not spend it on something really ugly - like the Commuter Cars Tango T600? With a face only a CEO could love (and a body to match!), this strange 3 wheel design electric could make a great getaway car with a top speed of 150 mph and the ability to squeeze between two traffic lanes!
The coolest: The most sexy car, by far, is still the Tesla roadster - although the car has had its share of growing pains recently. For those who have been salivating ever since they put down their $20,000 deposits on the car, we wish them the best and hope the wait is not too much longer.
Best "value": If you want the most range and top speed for the buck, and don’t particularly care that your car looks like a green bug flapping its wings, the Brazilian Obvio 828e is a good choice. Designed by the racing legend Anisio Campos, the all electric car will get you around town with a max range of 240 miles and top speed 120 mph for a price of $49k.
Funniest looking car: In this category, the Myers Motos NmG (No more Gas) rolls on its own. Reminiscent of the wiener mobile, this car makes up for its outlandish looks by not going very far (30 miles, tops)!
For a complete list of 27 electric car companies, see VentureBeat.
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